Budget Cuts, Fake Floods, Real Bodies
Texas Flood Catastrophe the MAGA Machine Called “Fake.”
Neglect, Cuts, and Conspiracy Turned Texas Hill Country into a Mass Grave
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A River of Death, a Tweet of Denial
By sunrise on July 5, the Guadalupe River wasn’t receding, it was revealing. As the swollen waterline dragged back toward its banks, it exposed the wreckage of Texas Hill Country: overturned vehicles wedged between telephone poles, cabin debris twisted around the trunks of 100-year-old pecan trees, and the bodies. Children. Elderly residents. Families swept off the grid in a matter of minutes. First responders slogged through silt and downed power lines, the stench of rot thickening under the weight of a Texas summer sun. The tally had already reached 32 confirmed dead with dozens still missing, including at least 14 children from Kerr County’s Camp Mystic, where bunkhouses were gutted before evacuation alerts even reached many parents.
The initial flood watch was issued more than 12 hours before the most severe flooding began, and the first flash flood warnings came at least three hours before the river surges reached catastrophic levels.
“Flash Flood Warnings were issued on the night of July 3 and in the early morning of July 4, giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met.”
The warnings had been issued. At 1:14 a.m., the National Weather Service had sounded the alarm. Flash Flood Warning. Danger to life and property. Take cover immediately. But it would take more than four hours before Kerr County authorities relayed that federal alert on their own emergency channels. In that silence, the river rose from 1 foot to over 30, tearing through homes, roads, and lives.
And while that chaos unfolded on the ground, Georgia MAGA congressional candidate Kandiss Taylor sat in the safety of her home, thumbs poised, typing this into her phone:
“Fake weather. Fake flooding. Fake. Fake. Fake.”
The post dropped just as first responders zipped a child’s body bag in front of sobbing parents. Taylor’s tweet was viewed hundreds of thousands of times in hours, recycled through the conspiracy ecosystem like chum for sharks. The flood was real. The damage was real. The deaths were real. But the people in power, the ones gutting science, delaying alerts, and spewing poison, refused to treat it like anything more than a culture-war opportunity.
This was more than a tragedy. It was an indictment.
The Storm That Refused to Leave
The rain began falling the evening of July 3 and didn't stop for more than 18 hours. It wasn’t a hurricane, not in the textbook sense, but it didn’t need to be. The remnants of Tropical Storm Barry collided with a stalled upper-level trough, allowing deep Gulf moisture to saturate the Texas Hill Country. Storm cells parked over Central Texas, unloading catastrophic rainfall, 10 to 16 inches in less than 12 hours, much of it concentrated over the fragile, drought-hardened limestone of Kerr and Kendall Counties.
Hydrologists have long warned that “Flash Flood Alley” is a powder keg. The region’s thin soil and rugged terrain funnel water into rivers at breakneck speed, especially when the ground is already cracked and baked from heat. On July 4, the river transformed into a hydrological weapon. The Guadalupe rose from less than one foot to 29 feet by early morning. The USGS gauge at Hunt recorded the water’s acceleration before it failed under pressure. By the time the sun came up, the river had crested at over 34 feet, a record-setting rise that ripped through campsites, mobile home parks, and low-lying roads with twice the force of a fucking freight train.
NOAA meteorologists confirmed that Gulf sea-surface temperatures were more than 2°C above average, a warming trend known to amplify rainfall intensity. This wasn’t some freak occurrence. It was a climate-fueled, data-modeled disaster that had been forecast days in advance.
A Timeline of Warnings Ignored
Here’s what we know: The National Weather Service issued its first Flash Flood Warning for Kerr County at 1:14 a.m. on July 4. It was updated to a Flash Flood Emergency at 4:03 a.m., a designation reserved for the most extreme, life-threatening events. But despite these escalating warnings, Kerr County’s official emergency communications channels remained silent until after 5 a.m.
*See below for detailed timeline
Let’s not pretend this is just a federal failure. Texas owns this blood, too.
Let that land: A four-hour blackout. No county-wide text alerts. No coordinated social media posts. No radio or television relays from the local Emergency Operations Center.
Kerrville Police Department didn’t share the NWS alert until 5:16 a.m. Kerr County’s Facebook page followed at 5:31 a.m. In that window, the water overtook Camp Mystic. Families awoke to brown torrents tearing down doors and snapping wooden beams like matchsticks.
We now know that county officials had access to the NWS alerts. What they didn’t have, by their own admission, was the operational continuity or trained staff to disseminate them fast enough. The Kerr County Emergency Management Office was running a skeleton overnight crew, and social media access required manual approval that didn’t happen in time.
The warnings existed. They just died in the gap between federal issuance and local execution.
Gauges in a Box, Sirens Never Sounded
In 2019, Kerr County secured grant funding for a $860,000 river sensor expansion, a state-of-the-art network that would have delivered real-time data every 60 seconds on rising river levels across the region. Commissioners voted to table the project, citing long-term maintenance costs. The sensors were never installed.
When the Hunt gauge failed mid-flood, there was no backup. The Guadalupe had become an invisible killer, rising unchecked in the black of night, with no eyes on it, no radar pinning its location, and no human or machine sounding the alarm.
Compounding the disaster, Camp Mystic sits within a FEMA Zone AE floodplain, a designation requiring heightened mitigation protocols. But under Texas law, religious camps are largely self-regulated when it comes to evacuation drills and emergency planning. Camp Mystic had no mandated flood drills in 2025. No sirens. No hard-wired alert systems. When the water breached the doors, young campers were asleep in bunks. Some were rescued through broken windows by counselors. Others weren’t found until hours later, miles downriver.
NOAA and FEMA: Death by Disinvestment
The forecast didn’t necessarily fail. The system did. And that failure traces back to Washington D.C. where, under Donald Trump’s second administration, budget-cutting wasn’t merely policy, it was political theater.
In 2025, Trump slashed NOAA’s budget by 25 percent, gutting the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research by over 75 percent. Balloon launches crucial for real-time weather modeling were reduced to three times a week. Doppler radar upgrades were deferred. The Houston National Weather Service Office, the one responsible for much of Texas, was operating with a 44 percent vacancy rate, including hydrologist and radar technician positions.
The FEMA response was similarly constrained. While the agency was able to rapidly deploy some high-water vehicles and swift-water crews following Trump’s Major Disaster Declaration for Texas, internal documents show that its inventory of deployable rescue rigs had been cut nearly in half from the levels available during Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Staff attrition and tariff-related equipment delays meant that FEMA was leaner and slower, even in the face of a major emergency.
This isn’t about being “underprepared.” It’s about knowingly hollowing out the federal systems meant to protect people, then claiming victory because your own chaos didn’t kill more.
Kandiss Taylor’s Flood of Lies
As communities searched for missing children, and helicopters winched elderly residents off rooftops, Kandiss Taylor logged onto X and launched a digital grenade.
“Fake weather. Fake flooding. Fake. Fake. Fake.”
Her post was seen more than 400,000 times within 24 hours and rapidly echoed across the far-right ecosystem, spinning theories of “geoengineered storms” and “climate weaponry.”
The damage was not just reputational. It was operational. Multiple reports confirmed that evacuees in Kerrville refused assistance, believing the flood was exaggerated or fabricated. Some accused rescuers of being “crisis actors.” Volunteer centers reported a drop in turnout as misinformation spread.
Taylor didn’t backpedal. When confronted about her comments, she doubled down:
“No one can control the way you raging liberals twist words. Brainwashed zombies.”
There is no accountability. Only amplification.
Conspiracy Gore in Real Time
Kandiss Taylor’s digital bile didn’t bloom in isolation; it sprouted from fertile MAGA soil. *Alex Jones has gone live, veins bulging, ranting about HAARP and “weather weapons” aimed at red states. Online MAGA groups with avatars of skulls in combat helmets forwarded the clip alongside drone footage of the river, doctored to look like CGI. Algorithms did their reliable, mercenary work: engagement-boosting hysteria, monetized outrage, frictionless virality.
Here's a breakdown of Alex Jones’ previous claims:
HAARP and Weather Modification: Jones and others have falsely attributed devastating storms like Hurricanes Helene and Milton to the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP), claiming it was used for weather warfare. This is a false conspiracy theory that has been debunked.
"Weather Weapons" Targeting Red States: Jones and others have specifically claimed that severe weather events, like hurricanes and tornadoes, have been "geoengineered" and deliberately aimed at areas that are likely to vote for Republican candidates.
Claims about Biden Administration: Jones has also suggested that the Biden administration was involved in orchestrating these weather events and using "Pentagon Weather Weapons".
No Evidence: It's important to note that there is no scientific or credible evidence to support these claims of weather manipulation or targeting. These are based on false and misleading information.
Political Expediency in the Wake of Ruin
To Trump’s credit, (and I almost hate to even fucking say that!) the federal government moved quickly to declare a major disaster in Texas. Within 24 hours of the crest, FEMA was authorized to deploy assets and release funding. But that efficiency is not consistent. When wildfires raged in California during his first term, Trump threatened to cut aid entirely, claiming the state “should have raked its forests.” The pattern is clear: blue states get shamed, red states get saved, quickly.
In this case, Texas didn’t suffer from withheld aid, but it may have benefited from a partisan safety net. And that’s what terrifies policy experts: a future where disaster response is no longer based on need, but on politics.
If that becomes the standard, America’s next disaster will be about who they let drown, not who they try to save.
The Human Cost: 850 Rescues, 50 Deaths, and Counting
As of this writing, the death toll stands at over 50, with dozens still unaccounted for. More than 850 people were rescued, many by volunteer flotillas using personal boats, jet skis, and improvised rafts. The damage to homes, roads, and infrastructure is expected to exceed $10 billion, and parts of the Hill Country may not fully recover for years.
These aren’t just a pile of rambling statistics. They are torn families, displaced communities, and trauma that will haunt survivors long after the waters recede. And still, local officials downplay, national politicians deflect, and fringe voices distract.
Rebuild or Repeat
We’ve seen this before. We’ve heard the apologies. “Unprecedented event.” “No one could have predicted.” The same excuses recycled like stormwater through a goddam cracked culvert. But the science did predict it. The warnings were issued. The equipment was boxed. The experts were laid off. The alerts went unposted.
The only question now is whether we’ll rebuild the system, or simply wait for the next flood to stack another row of graves.
NOAA must be re-funded. FEMA must be fully staffed and de-politicized. Rural counties like Kerr must install the sensor grids they’ve shelved. And platforms like X must be held responsible when disinformation interferes with disaster response.
Otherwise, we’re not a country preparing for the next flood. We’re a country waiting to drown again, this time knowing full well what’s coming.
The River Has Receded. The Truth Has Not.
The Guadalupe has calmed a bit for now. But underneath its muddy surface are the wreckage of homes, the bones of livestock, and the memories of a week when everything failed. The federal government. The local government. The systems. The signals. The adults in the room.
And while the families of Kerr County mourn, Kandiss Taylor is still online, still tweeting, still raising money off the lie that what happened never really happened.
This flood wasn’t a freak act of nature. It was the predictable result of arrogance, austerity, and disinformation. If we let this go unanswered, if we don’t fix what’s broken, we’re telling every victim that their death was acceptable collateral.
We heard the warnings. We ignored them.
Next time, the water won’t be the only thing with blood on its hands.
Timeline of Official Warnings and Flood Events
Thursday, July 3, 2025
1:18 p.m. (CT):
The NWS issued a Flood Watch for the Texas Hill Country, including Kerr County. This alert forecasted up to 7 inches of rain and warned residents of the potential for flash flooding overnight.
“A flood watch was issued by the National Weather Service at 1:18 p.m. that predicted up to 7 inches of isolated rainfall early Friday morning in South Central Texas, including Kerr County.”Evening:
Forecasts became more ominous, with meteorologists warning of the likelihood of heavy thunderstorms and significant rainfall through the night.Friday, July 4, 2025 (Early Morning Hours)
Around Midnight:
Rain began falling across Central Texas, including the Hill Country region.1:00–1:14 a.m.:
The first Flash Flood Warning was issued by NWS for Bandera County and then for Kerr County at 1:14 a.m., as rainfall rates intensified and river levels began to rise.
“The first flash flood warning issued by NWS was at 1:14 a.m. Friday.”1:14 a.m. onward:
All NWS flash flood warnings triggered Wireless Emergency Alerts to mobile phones in the affected areas. These warnings were updated multiple times throughout the night and into Friday morning, each update re-triggering alerts via the Emergency Alert System and Wireless Emergency Alerts.4:03 a.m.:
The NWS escalated to a Flash Flood Emergency for Kerr County, warning of an “extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation” and urging immediate evacuation to higher ground.
“The most serious warning came at 4:03 a.m. when the NWS issued a flash flood emergency, warning of an 'extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation' and urging immediate evacuations to higher ground.”5:30–5:34 a.m.:
Additional flash flood emergencies were issued, including for Hunt through Kerrville to Center Point, as automated rain gauges indicated a deadly flood wave moving down the Guadalupe River.
“The first NWS flood emergency warning at 5:34 am for Hunt through Kerrville to Center Point stated that 'automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River. Flash flooding is already occurring.'”6:45 a.m.:
The Guadalupe River in Kerrville peaked at over 34 feet, a catastrophic rise that followed hours of advance warnings.Throughout July 4
Morning to Afternoon:
Rainfall totals far exceeded forecasts, with some areas receiving up to 12 inches. The NWS continued to issue and update warnings, and local authorities began evacuations as rivers overtopped their banks.7:00 a.m.:
Kerr County began evacuating residents near the Guadalupe River in Hunt.10:00 a.m.:
The Kerr County Sheriff’s Office confirmed multiple fatalities and continued to urge residents to shelter in place or move to higher ground.Saturday, July 5
Early Morning:
Additional flash flood emergencies were issued for areas around Lake Travis and north of San Angelo as the storm system shifted eastward, bringing more torrential rain and flooding to the region